In Guntur, in the 80s if your son, sibling, uncle or even if your neighbor had moved to USA it's a proud thing. In early 90s it became a norm and by late 90s and 2000s it's expected that young man or woman would go to USA. This change can be attributed to many reasons. Corruption, lack of opportunities due to reservations in India, Y2K/dot com boom and the sudden rise in the engineering college graduates.
IT boom and social mobility, migration caused by it had put Andhra Pradesh on the world map. But slowly and clearly it's changing the demographics, as young people are leaving state just as they turn voters and their vote goes unused. I can't predict the long term impact but this change might appear more precipitous in the next few years.
China is trying some sort of social engineering by moving 250 million people from villages to Cities. What's happening in our state now isn't forced migration, more of voluntary or need based. Make no mistake, 73% of Telugu speaking people still live in Andhra Pradesh only. But young, educated people are leaving the state in droves, that'll impact.the legislature, government and society over the long term.
I left country as 22 year old, for me this was the obvious path. My uncles and aunt paved the way and set the expectation, so there's no other alternative. That's how 20s would be, no second thoughts. 30s make you mull over past and think about future. Wonder what 40s will do. I haven't thought about this issue, until I was 28. When I went to India for my sister's engagement, one of the guests asked me, where I live. After I mentioned NJ, he jokingly said, అందరు అమెరికాకి వెళ్ళిపోతే, కొన్నాళ్ళకి ఇంక మన కులం వాళ్ళు స్టేట్లొ ఎవరు ఉండరేమో.(Don't be offended by caste reference. In India when it comes to caste, they don't beat around bush) His casual remark then, sounds very prescient now.
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| My native village Paluvayi, Guntur Dt. December 2009 |
Young people moving out of home towns for better jobs is a universal phenomena. But AP is in a peculiar position, as it's churning out the highest number of engineering graduates. Obviously they can't all find jobs in their town or state. they're moving wherever their next academic choice or job is, it could be neighboring state or USA. US DoS opened Hyderabad consulate as most of the applicants showing up at Chennai are from AP. We don't keep many statistics, but you can get a rough estimate of how many Telugu speaking people live in USA compared to rest of Indians. As per 2010 census, 2,843,391 Indians or of Indian ethnicity live in USA. As per another rough estimate 1 million of them are Telugu speaking. So 1/3rd of diaspora is from AP (I sourced these from Wikipedia, better estimates are welcome). Why look at statistics, when you can find it at your workplace in USA. Most of the time Telugu people constitute 50% of Indian workforce in IT. Point I want to make prove is, other states aren't losing young people like us.
OK Telugu people have the mobility, that's not a problem. Problem is, this migration to abroad isn't across the board, This is more predominant among upper middle class, upper caste (as designated by government) families from Krishna, Guntur, Godavari districts, predominantly from Coast and of course around Hyderabad. From my personal perspective, snapshot of my first cousins also gives the same picture. In my generation (born between 80 and early 90s) we're 13 first cousins (maternal & paternal) altogether. Out of 13, 3 of us are in USA, 5 are living in Hyderabad, 2 are working outside of AP and only 3 live in Guntur District. Considering the fact that Hyderabad is gonna be part of Telengana, only 3 out of 13 are in state. That's 23%. Not just my extended family, most of the friends with whom I went to college, are outside the state or abroad. Only people who took over family businesses stayed back.
I and most of the friends who left country along with me @ 21 or 22 had never voted (officially) in India. Many of the new grads in early 20s might not've utilized their voting right in last election as they're outta state or country. Those votes might've tilted results in many constituencies. Now, that imbalance will be even more as Hyderabad would be part of a different state. So from voting perspective, if you just look at data, it might appear as if the upper middle class people of certain communities in certain towns didn't even procreate.
There'll be demographic and sociopolitical changes also. Population growth of fewer castes growth will slow down and voter representation of fewer castes will increase. Castes, politics, power are deeply intertwined in India. I believe next elections in AP (sans Telengana) would show signs of this. I'm sure about this though, people voting for welfare schemes outnumber the voters who don't rely on welfare and pay taxes.
There's a also a trend of families moving out of villages to towns and cities for their children's education and better lifestyle. For that, many families from farming communities are giving up agriculture. We don't know how this pans out in long run, may be farming will be corporatized like in USA. One change is already conspicuous, it became very difficult for an upper caste guy who's in farming to find a girl. Girls' parents want their daughter to have better future, so they're looking for a person with a paycheck rather than a farmer. Men in priesthood profession are also experiencing the same issue.
When youngsters leave country in prime age, they might not return but their money returns to real estate. I wrote about this before and Guntur is at the forefront of this. As apartment of equal square ft in Brindavan Gardens area of Guntur costs almost as an apartment in HITEC City area in Hyderabad. Consider the fact that there's severe water shortage and power isn't reliable. All this is cause of NRI redemptions and scarcity of living space caused by mobility from villages. Of course there're other reasons like capital speculation. A 30 year old with family, who earns a paycheck in Guntur and doesn't have access to black money, how can he afford a home in Guntur?
Yes change is happening, but we're far from it. For NRIs, all this would be news. Personal issue is how to care for parents. This is the first generation which left country en masse, there's no example which you can follow. Two things which I'm worried about are safety & health. All the young men are leaving towns and villages, nobody will be around to ensure safety and tend to their daily needs. Western countries might've experienced this in early 20th century. But that immigration to US might not be as imbalanced as ours. Many NRIs of my age are asking themselves the same question.
Until 2012, many people used to say or might have had serious plans about going back. After Delhi rape incident, accidents, assaults on woman and handling of state bifurcation and aftermath, many people are dropping those plans. I never planned on return, and I still don't intend to. But again, Never say Never. Whatever happening in India in AP isn't shocking to me. All that corruption, lack of law & order, is kinda like told ya. One thing still saddens me though, How little of a value is human life in India. A woman gets raped and killed, dozens die in bus and train accidents, there'll be outrage for a day or two and people move on until something else happens.
Elections have consequences. India right now looks like democracy in action, when law abiding citizens who contribute to economy, pay taxes aren't interested in exercising their voting right. People who sell their vote, live on welfare even in the prime age of 20-40s are voting and electing governments. I don't blame politicians, I blame people who didn't exercise their voting right. This is their reckoning.
Other thing which is leaving me confused is political activism among NRIs, I'm not critical, I'm more of lost about the objective. During last couple of weeks Telengana (not an issue anymore, it's a state) caused tensions among facebook friends and those spilled into real world too. I'm not gonna claim false equivalency here, you know who you're. Our money would be overpowered by corrupt money and our voice gets drowned by hired crowds, so why bother? We consciously chose to live outside the country, for the pursuit of better life and safety which is lacking in motherland. Do we've right to complain or is it our duty to reform it from outside? I'd a closer look at villages during my short visit to India in 2013. People who voted for present government are happy. Only educated upper middle class are suffering.
I might've made few wisecracks about state politics on fb, but I'm not at pain like others are. How can our contribution to Lok Satha change caste conscious voters mindset in villages or how much impact would it have? I'm not even gonna talk about AAP, that's beyond my ability to comprehend. Yes I'm cynical, but history & reality vindicate my view. I hope I'm wrong about future, but again I'm not an optimist.
