Is a revolution overdue in India? Depends on whom you ask...

At any NRI gathering, if we're not talking about immigration or how people are suffering cause of Thaman's music, we talk about India politics. Wherever the discussion starts, we end up with corrupt AP politics, by that I mean how much wealth Jagan amassed with his father's influence, how he might come out before elections and how corrupt was YSR's administration. Some of us will proclaim that, one day a change will occur and it'll cleanse the system. Few other places and settings, it's also called a revolt or revolution.

I'm skeptical about that revolution or change...cause most of the revolutions happen when people are vexed and their lives become unbearable. If you pay attention, in India, particularly in AP, only middle class is suffering. Poor are happy with their upgraded living standards.

Yes there're poor people and poverty exists. But it's not like 80s or 90s, any poor who has vote is covered by one or more welfare scheme. In AP I can list Paniki Aaharam, Jala Yagnam, Fee Reimbursement Scheme, Bangaru Thalli, Mana Biyyam and then Aarogyasri. At central level Food Security Bill, Cash Transfer Scheme etc. As counter intuitive it sounds, it's not that bad to be poor in India.

Poor aren't struggling. They've cellphones, bikes and all other stuff which were considered as comforts 10,15 years ago. It's not like they've running water and 24 hours power supply. Consistency of life is not what's important for them. Middle class yearns for it, cause they paid their dues. What poor look out for themselves is food and shelter. No matter how much corruption exists in India, most of the poor with a vote gets these. It's good thing to be poor and born in Lower Caste. Cause you'll be benefited by poverty schemes and reservations.

But upper middle class, salaried people with professional jobs. They have to pay all kinds of taxes, as taxes are deducted at source. There's no such thing called black money...other than some money which they might've made with a real estate sale. But there's no reliable power supply, no proper roads, and no consistent supply of water. In the year of 2013, power and water became luxuries.

In Guntur, AP the place where I come from, a 3 BR apartment of standard living area goes for 1 cr. But there's no ground water, you've to buy water through tankers every day. Yes there's no ground water in Hyderabad or Vijayawada, but they've river water which is pumped to homes by Muncipal corporations. But there's no such thing for our area. The last few days, with all the bandhs you can't expect tankers to be on time.1 cr for an apartment where you don't reliable water which you're willing to pay. And when there's an unregulated industry, a cartel develops. e.g. Banglore water mafia.

Rich and wealthy, as you know they can get all the GOs passed and they're prospering. Look at all the scams Emaar, VANPIC, Bayyaram Mines, Outer Ring road. And the people who're in jail now, Koneru Rajendra Prasad, Gali Janardhana Reddy, Nimmagadda Prasad and others. All those construction projects, road widenings, mining projects gotta make somebody rich right?! It's not that all the rich are happy about this. Corruption and racketeering became so prevalent in YSR's administration that reputed business families in AP like GMR, GVK and Lanco stayed out of AP as they couldn't play by Jagan's rules. But again, being capitalists they investing elsewhere to the loss of AP. Rich didn't loose any, more of an inconvenience for them and loss of GDP for the state.

Jagan's Empire : But how much a poor voter cares

Coming back to Welfare schemes, I've relatives who got benefited by Aarogyasri. On of my distant aunts, approximately 55 year old widow had a leg fracture and got treated under Aarogyasri. Issue here is, middle class pay for all this and poor are getting benefits cause of the politicians. My aunt who's barely educated, wouldn't think who paid for this, who's becoming rich cause of this and all the economic theories. Back in the day, government hospital might not've treated her at all, but she got treatment at corporate hospital cause of Aarogyasri. That's all she cares and that's all she could. You can't explain a daily wage earner, how much govt land is lost cause of SEZs and mining lands.

Entitlements/Welfare schemes, they exists here in US also, but that money spent should at least be budgeted for. Social Security and Medicare operate that way. But Medicaid wasn't. Food Stamps  budgeted for. But in AP, I don't think it's a problem, NTR might've started Rs.2 rice with good intentions but he never cared for budget. YSR started most number of populist schemes, nobody cared for budget as liquor sales are paying the bills, and it made his friends and followers extremely rich

Most of the Telugu NRIs who despise YSR have a level of disconnect about Aarogyasri. Yes, it's cronyism, but poor got benefited by it and they'll vote for his son. Same with fee reimbursement. More people are getting false income statements to get that fee. Middle class are the one who pay for all these, rich they'll never pay their fair share. cause most of the income is never accounted for. Poor would never have any income that can taxed, other than the sales taxes which they pay.

Usually we blame politicians for all the problems. but voters are never blamed. Voters are the culprits here. (In US you can blame candidates first, as they take bribes, oops..I mean contributions from corporations for their PACs) I've seen last panchayati elections closely. Villagers expect money from all the contestants. In a moderate village, almost 50 lakhs was spent. The person who won the election, he expects that money, interest and profit from his term. And how would he get that money back? Development funds. How can villagers ask for better roads, power or drains if they're sold out.
This repeats for Assembly, Parliament, Cabinet etc.

Poor are always well engaged with voting. By that I means, they'll vote for highest bidder. Upper middle class are always disengaged. To vote, they need to register for vote, which many wouldn't. But again they don't have much choice. You've Congress or TDP candidate, most probably both of them entered politics to make money. If you're from lower caste in India, you're very well represented. if you belong to an upper caste but poor, tough luck.

If you look at the immigration patterns in western countries, more than ever..very big number of educated and working Indian youngsters are living outside the country. And those are votes which aren't cast. It's not to imply that people living abroad are smarter than people living in India. These votes could've tilted results of many constituencies where the winning margin was low.

Here in US, people of all economic classes, corporations are engaged in politics. Rich to protect their lower taxes and poor to protect their entitlements. Of course there's a set of people who vote against their interests, like a hedge fund manager's social conscious wife who votes for democrats and a poor plant worker in red state  who votes for republican. Why, cause it's the right thing to do. Middle class get swayed by social issue/culture wars that year. Gay marriage, Abortion, Immigration..

The lowest strata of the society is happy with the way things are. Affluent are prospering even more. A change or mass movement usually comes from these two. With poor it's genuine and rich can orchestrate a AstroTurf campaign or use hired goons. And upper middle class they've jobs to do, spouses and kids to go home to. They need their salaries to pay for their house, car, kids education and all other. There's no energy or drive left for these. That could be one of the reasons why the Anna Hazare movement lost its steam. There's political spinoff by name Aam Aadmi Party, but I don't know how effective it would be.

There's one way this could end, when governments run  out of money for  these welfare programs. In AP I've seen these schemes in full swing since 2004, they haven't stopped until now. As long as India can borrow and taxable base increases, this will go on.

With the complacency of middle class and the entitlements of poor and luxurious lives of rich, I don't see a incentive/opportunity for any change. Poor doesn't want anything taken away from them. Rich are happy at where they're. Who cares if politicians are corrupt, about their nepotism, cronyism or how much public wealth is plundered.

I used almost 1500 words for this, but Sri Gollapudi Maruti Rao said this more effectively in 2 minutes.in Leader movie.

 

Unlike other arguments, I'd like to be proven wrong about this.

But I just don't know how I can lose on this.