Monday, June 27, 2011

State of uncertainity.. I mean unemployment.

I've been living here in USA for the last 9 years and I consider myself pretty assimilated. One of the things which I found very pleasant and surprising is the way college grads ease into the job and life. Almost every college grad used to land in job right after college. Parents will start feeling like empty nesters and suddenly have an extra room or two to use.

But college grads these days are really struggling. they consider themselves very lucky if they've jobs. Read this blog post by yves smith in naked capitalism about fresh college grad working as a doorman. The earlier doorman was also a college grad. That kinda struck me and reminded me of India in 70s and 80s.

India used to have socialist leanings in those days, hence there're not many private enterprises creating jobs. Very few private jobs and rest of them are government jobs. And there's affirmative action in the name of 'reservations'. So an average college grad with liberal arts diploma can't really land in a job. That's why all the movie heroes used to play the roles of unemployed angry young man who couldn't land into a job cause of corrupt officers and system.

As Bob Dylan sang, the times they are a-changing. India changed so much and it's a market bases economy now. Private enterprises are booming and GDP is growing at the rate of 7%. I don't hear about chronic unemployment which was staple of our society until mid 1990s. Even though unemployment rate is at 10%, it's better than 70s and 80s. At the same time, we here in USA are afraid of our jobs every day and unemployment is 9.1% and GDP growth rate slowed down to 3.1%.

As you might see it, there's not many jobs around in this country. And boomers are postponing their retirements, which means new grads can't get into market yet. Not to state the obvious, there're not many manufacturing jobs left behind in this country. As you can see from this picture, financial sector profits reached 41% of US Business Profits by 2009. They might've came down little bit by this year. Point I want to make is, we're not creating anything. Wall street is manipulating and minting money rather than managing and lending it. We don't have any good consumer devices from USA except the apple products. But they're all made in China and we made Foxconn a million employee company and lot richer. Facebook, twitter and other social networking innovations, yeah they're based in USA but they don't employ many people here. Facebook have development centers in India, Ireland and they use they to route profits to tax havens. All these IPOs and social networking only helps the rich and chosen few.

Lemme break down a myth perpetuated by Republicans. "Regulation is killing the jobs. Obama administration is a job killer". Well do you really think, corporations wouldn't hire, if there's enough demand. Post recession, many managers realized that they can milk the employees, as they've no place to go. Companies are sitting on record amount of Cash here and overseas. They're not hiring as they can't be sure of the demand cause of the doldrums in housing and job market.

Republicans portray themselves as strong at military and job creation. Obama proved the contrary on first point and I'll do the second one. (pun intended) Mitt Romney and Jon Huntsman, two presidential candidates are eager to tell how Obama failed to create jobs and how they're adept at it. Mitt Romney is partner of Bain Capital, a private equity group. Private equity group, by definition will buy a distressed company, lay off employees, optimize operations and issue an IPO and run with the profits. That's how Mitt Romney made part of his fortune. And Jon Huntsman and his family owns a billion dollar company Huntsman Corp. Out of 12,000 worldwide employees only 2,174 are inside USA. Effectively these two candidates who call themselves as job creators are job killers.

Meanwhile Obama got criticized for bailing out Detroit Auto Industry, which saved 1 million jobs. Just imagine how the situation could've be, if not for that. Every generation in this country reinvented itself. Steel industry, automotive jobs helped a generation survive and then call centre and IT jobs came along. They're all outsourced to India. These days except Healthcare and retail sector jobs, anything can be outsourced. Manufacturing sector isn't doing bad but the rate of job growth has to go up really fast to take more people off the unemployment.

Our chief competitor China is investing and prospering in all sectors. Education, Infrastructure, new jobs and investments in overseas. Remember, USA used to be that country. Not anymore. We've an effective conservative rhetoric in DC, which paints President as spendthrift even if he wants to invest in Infrastructure and education.

While the rest of world is busy in investing in kids and future, our Legislatures are busy passing bills to protect fetuses.

Peace.

Graph from Atlantic

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Two Speeches

I can't recall who spoke for my Commencement at University of South Carolina in Dec'03. I googled, couldn't find who it is or any quotes. We're all eager to take pictures I guess. After an year in Toastmasters, I developed interest in speaking. And thanks to YouTube, we can watch any commencement speech on Demand now.

It looks like speeches by Comedian / TV show hosts stood out this year
Here're Conan O'Brien & Stephen Colbert speeches.
Conan delivered his speech to Dartmouth Grads and Stephen to Northwestern University.

In Chronological order of the date of commencement address.




Both of them started funny and ended on a very high and teary note. It should be very hard on new grads and parents, to be reminded again by commencement speaker, how bad the job market is.

Congratulations to all the new grads, if any stumble on to this blog.
Things are gonna get better..

Sunday, June 12, 2011

Can we hold financial analysts responsible for their calls?

If you're a regular viewer of 60 Minutes, last December you might've seen Meredith Whitney predicting 50 to 100 significant municipal bond defaults in 2011. She made the headlines with just that call.

Please endure Chris Christie for 30 secs or you can scroll


LinkLinkFor the starters, she's one of the very few analysts who predicted the '07 financial meltdown in one form or other. Back then her prediction was, Citigroup would lower its dividend and that it was time to sell bank stocks. It could be cause of her financial acumen or sheer luck. That's her ticket to fame, till date that's the only good substantial call she ever made. She resigned from Oppenheimer on February 19, 2009 and started her own adivsory group.

But this muni default call didn't go unnoticed and critics pounced on it, from day one.
“You could see 50 sizeable defaults. Fifty to 100 sizeable defaults. More. This will amount to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of defaults.”
But as we're approaching mid of they year, she's getting very defensive on the call. Last Wednesday she's on CNBC squawk box.












Needless to say she's very tense and strangely she got pointed Questions from Becky and our new Free markets champion Joe Kernen. Here's few of her statements and my observations.

Muni defaults isn't part of large issue.
But her whole 60 minutes appearance was about her defaults call.

Tried to change definition of default as reduced services.
Her call specifically mentioned hundreds of billions Dollars of deficits.

Talks about state difficulties while the topic is muni-bonds.
State bonds are different from muni-bonds

She never mentioned 12 months
In 60 minutes video, she said 12 months


And here's response from Cumberland Advisors, her main detractors on this issue. Unlike Meredith, this firm isn't one trick pony and have gravitas.

I was thinking that she or her clients might be shorting municipal bonds. But she said on air that she doesn't have a position in bonds neither does her clients. Makes me think why would she make that kind of controversial call.

This looks like an exact opposite to Credit Ratings agencies role in sub-prime crisis, but equally harmful. Investors are already shorting the muni-bonds, and she added to it. I can't predict the result though. Looking at rise of income tax returns at state level, I assume/hope that states are in better shape then we all' re afraid of.

Financial industry and press aren't hiding their displeasure and I hope she wouldn't get a free pass. Not quite sure whether regulation covers this area or not.

Peace

P.S. Nice shout out from Meredith to Short Hills, my favorite mall in NJ.

06/14/11
This just in, WSJ itself is publishing contrary evidence to Meredith's predictions.

Thursday, June 9, 2011

My last Toastmasters Speech

This is my last (10th) speech which I gave at my Toastmaster's club. Objective of this speech is to 'inspire audience'. That's why the preachy tone and departure from my usual partisan and profane style. Minimally edited for blog.
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Madam Toastmaster, fellow toastmasters and guests.


USA is a place where smart people can easily prosper and we exceed every other country in R&D activity and patent filings. Number of Nobel Laureates from USA proves that. There’re total 326 Laureates from USA. The closest country behind us is UK with 116. The Total count of next five countries (UK, Germany, France, Sweden, Russia) is 330.


But there's also an ugly side. The poor, down trodden, uninformed strata of our society. Today I want to talk about two socio-economic issues which touch all of us.


The creamy layer, smart people, they've been innovating, making difference in this country and all over the world. But we also have the poor, uninformed society. Kids from these neighborhoods are struggling in basic reading comprehension, math etc. Reasons are many.


If you'd observed, respect for intellectuals has been dwindling. More alarming is contempt for educated and deriding' em as elitists.


I can’t recall where I heard this or read this.

Of two top tier NCAA basketball teams, people hate Duke cause it's private university with smarty pants graduation rate 91%. But people idolize U Conn where graduation rate is so low, 31% as they're keeping it real. Daughter of a famous politician, the only reason she's on TV now is cause of her teenage pregnancy. Many youngsters now think that their ticket to fame is athletics, reality shows.


Reality shows...that’s the first issue which I want to talk.


I don't know how many realty shows or on air now, but few names are really baffling.

Teen mom, season 2
Extreme Couponing
I didn't knew I was pregnant
Tool academy
Jersey shore (this is like avatar of realty shows)

I don't know how many reality shows are there with the royalty, Kardashian sisters.

All they do on these shows is have sex out of wedlock, objectify women, quarrel with house mates. If this ends at reality TV, I'm fine. But reality stars started venturing into businesses to rob people of their money. Reality shows are just making money off the audience's ignorance.

Exhibit A
Kardashians pre-paid credit card ?
Why would anybody apply for this card, laden with hidden fees?

250 applied for this pre-paid credit card. It took a warning letter from CT attorney general to take that card off the market.

No body talks about these, and I want you to caution your neighbors, nieces, nephews, cousins who ever is vulnerable to these kind of things.


You might say, oh well all these people are poorly educated and they're susceptible for that kind of predatory lending.

Did I just say education, oh well reality shows got you covered on that also.
Donald trump University, Glenn Beck University..

Carmen Mendez, 59, is a public school teacher in Brooklyn. She spent 35,000 to get real estate diploma from Trump University. Donald, he declared bankruptcy thrice, while running casinos. Who'll become bankrupt while running a casino? And she paid 35K to get a diploma from his school, hard to sympathize with her. And she’s a school teacher. She’s an easy target for our jokes. But she’s un-informed, and she got fooled by Trump name on big towers in Manhattan.

This brings to my second issue today, for profit colleges!


USA and most of Western civilization followed this noble motive. Education should never be profit based. But things are changing and recession which started in ‘07 benefited' em immensely. You’ve all these suddenly unemployed people trying to comeback into job market.


You've public schools like "Univ of South Carolina" my alma-matter. Or a non-profit private universities like Harvard or Stanford. Now we've Private educational Institutions with profit motive, like

University of Phoenix
DeVry University
Art institute

Are they helping? Answer is harsh, no they’re not.
Let’s look at six year graduation rate of top 3 colleges in enrollment.

University of Phoenix 9%
DeVry Institute 31%
Art institute 41%

These colleges follow a specific pattern, they prey on minorities and low income groups. It’s just another form of sub prime lending, just the bait changed. Then it was a home, now it’s a college degree. People who join these colleges are getting loaded with student loan debts up to 60,000. Who’s lending this money, Federal government in the form of federal loans, Pell grants etc. So it’s you paying for this.

People who’re fortunate enough to graduate, these diplomas aren’t helping’em any way in this job market. All they’re getting is student loan debt.

Student loan debt is different from regular debt. Student loan debt is not dischargeable in bankruptcy, so it can follow a student for a lifetime. Defaulters can have their wages garnished, their income tax refunds intercepted, and their Social Security payments withheld.*

I'm not saying "don't spend on college" Pay for it, but don't get into 30K debt for a diploma in Asian studies.

So Federal govt wanted to put a leash on these colleges, but due to lobbying and pressure from few law-makers administration watered down the regulation and gave' em 4 more years...so how many people has to get bankrupt. There's a bright side, Apollo group stock went 10% up.

Point I want to make is, Ignorance is not bliss.

Please inform your loved ones and neighbors about the disadvantages of these schools. You’ve to protect your own interests and your family’s interests. And educate or inform people whom you care about.

Government might not help you. Problem with free markets is, there’s always a sleazy guy trying to exploit ignorant and poor people. Regulators are always in catch-up mode.

People like Railroad baron Vanderbilt in 19th century, Industrialist Henry ford in 20th Century and Bill gates, Steve jobs in our age, they all became rich and made people around them rich by working hard, adding value to life and by contributing to society. It's not just the industrialists, even your Hollywood icons...they all worked hard to be there.

Please convey it to the youngsters who just graduated or about to graduate.

There's no shortcut to success, you've to earn it. And Ignorance isn’t bliss.

Thank you.
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